As 2013 becomes history, efforts to combat polio have pushed the disease closer to a permanent place in the past. In the last tally of the year, only Pakistan reported new cases. Excepting eleven cases originating from Pakistan, Afghanistan experienced no polio in 2013. And Nigeria, which led the world in cases last year, has reported none since early October, a string of zeroes unprecedented in this century. [Update: Nigeria has subsequently reported a single case that dates to December 15.] Nigeria might also have recorded the world’s last case of type 3 polio more than a year ago, in November 2012; no type 3 cases have been reported anywhere since. Type 2 was eradicated in 1999, leaving only type 1 of the wild polio virus.
The spectacular outbreaks in Syria and Somalia, afflicting hundreds with polio-induced paralysis, originated from Pakistan and Nigeria respectively. A handful of cases in Cameroon also trace back to Nigeria. Until India snuffed out polio, about one year ago, the disease leapt to places as far away as Angola. But when the reservoirs are extinguished, the outbreaks cease.
Although Nigeria has yet to run the mid-year gauntlet where cases have peaked over the last several years (see graph below), the multibillion dollar eradication program might now have polio cornered in Pakistan.
