Immunization coverage for polio continues to climb in Nigeria. The most recent campaigns in April reached more children than ever and continue a solid upward trend over the last two years. The key threshold of 80% coverage has been reached. That level, sustained over time, usually crushes polio inexorably.
India, in 2011, stood in similar circumstances just prior to the high season--and knocked polio out, enduringly. Nigeria has a chance as the high season approaches, beginning around July. However, elimination poses different challenges in every country. In Nigeria, not only widely-publicized security issues obstruct. But upcoming elections might also impinge on sustaining coverage gains. With luck, Nigeria might stop polio transmission this year. But the World Health Organization's Sona Bari cautions that India at this point, "was in a far stronger position in terms of surveillance quality, immunity levels and political commitment." Most likely, Nigeria is at the cusp of the cusp